San Diego, Calif. (April 22, 2022) — The Urban Land Institute’s (ULI) latest Real Estate Economic Forecast gives high-level projections of full employment recovery and growth by the end of 2022 and strong GDP growth continuing at rates comparable to the pre-pandemic decade by 2024. The semiannual survey of economists and analysts at the nation’s leading real estate organizations addresses 27 key economic and real estate indicators, ranging from GDP and employment figures to commercial real estate transactions and property sector performance.

The Spring 2022 ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast is a consensus forecast based on the median of the forecasts from 47 economists and analysts at 36 major real estate investment, advisory, and research firms and organizations. The 21^st semiannual survey was completed from March 24 to April 13, 2022.

“Looking at the Spring 2022 Forecast, we can anticipate post-pandemic growth will be rooted in strong regional markets and robust opportunities in the build-to-rent segment,” said ULI Global CEO Ed Walter. “The projections tell us that although the prospects of a recession have increased, the impact on real estate should be limited. It should also not be overlooked that while the downtown office market continues to face challenges, well-located, newer office space is expected to bounce back in the next twelve months.”

Projections from the semi-annual survey, which covers the forecast period of 2022 through 2024, include the following:

• Commercial real estate transaction volume reached an historic high of $846 billion in 2021, almost double the pandemic-year low of $431 billion in 2020. Levels are expected to moderate during the forecast period but still exceed pre-pandemic highs, with $800 billion in 2022, $725 billion in 2023 and $750 billion in 2024.
• Price growth increased by 19.5% in 2021, almost triple the price growth in each of the five previous years when growth in those years was already above their long-term average. Price growth in 2022 is expected to moderate to be a strong 10%, before moderating further to 6.0% in 2023 and 5.9% in 2024.
• Change in vacancy and availability rates is expected to be minimal in the forecast period across property types. Industrial availability will remain low and essentially plateau, apartment vacancies will remain tight and only inch up, and retail vacancies will remain steady at slightly below their long-term average. Office vacancy rates are expected to stay elevated and plateau at above their long-term average.

Full results and analysis of this data will be presented during a webinar on Wednesday, May 4, 2022, and made available on ULI Knowledge Finder and americas.uli.org/economicforecast at that time. The webinar will feature analysis from Mary Ludgin, Senior Managing Director & Director of Global Investment Research at Heitman, Lee Menifee, Managing Director, Head of Americas Investment Research at PGIM Real Estate (Equity), Sabrina Unger, Managing Director, Head of Research & Strategy at American Realty Advisors, and Suzanne Mulvee, Senior Vice President, Research and Strategy, at GID. You can register for the webinar here.

For more information, contact [email protected].

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About the Urban Land Institute

The Urban Land Institute is a non-profit education and research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to shape the future of the built environment for transformative impact in communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the institute has more than 45,000 members worldwide representing all aspects of land use and development disciplines. For more information on ULI, please visit uli.org, or follow us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Instagram.