Associate, ULI Philadelphia
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WASHINGTON (May 19, 2021) — The Urban Land Institute’s (ULI) latest Real Estate Economic Forecast predicts that the real estate sector is poised for a rebound, with the single-family housing sector, hotel and industrial returns forecast to strongly increase over the next three years.
The report’s conclusions are based on an April-May survey of 42 economists and analysts at 39 leading real estate organizations. The sentiment of the group indicated that the office sector is likely to rebound by 2023, and industrial will remain strong; meanwhile, other asset classes will rebound from pre-pandemic lows and grow in future years.
“While the fall 2020 Forecast was notable in its reversal of many of the pessimistic forecasts from spring 2020, the current forecast goes even further, with several forecasts now ahead of long-term averages,” said ULI leading member William Maher, director of strategy and research, RCLCO. “Among the 2021–2023 metrics predicted to outpace long-term averages are GDP and employment growth, the unemployment rate, real estate transaction volumes, warehouse and apartment occupancy and rent growth, and single-family housing starts and price appreciation.”
The survey results were released today during a ULI member-only webinar that also featured observations from Michael Acton, managing director, AEW Capital Management, L.P.; Matt Anderson, managing director, Trepp LLC; Lee Menifee, managing director and head of Americas investment research, PGIM Real Estate; and Suzanne Mulvee, senior vice president of research and strategy, GID.
Predictions from the semi-annual survey, which covers the forecast period of 2021 through 2023, include the following:
ULI’s Spring 2021 Real Estate Economic Forecast is the latest in a series of forecasts based on surveys of economists and industry analysts that are conducted on a semi-annual basis by the institute’s Center for Real Estate Economics and Capital Markets. Results from the next survey are planned for release in October 2021.