Montgomery County, MD – Virtual Advisory Service Panel
While updating its Subdivision Staging Policy, Montgomery County, Maryland’s Planning Department asked ULI to convene a virtual ASP.
May 20, 2020
For more information, contact Justin Arnold, 202-448-8717, [email protected]
WASHINGTON (May 20, 2020) – The Urban Land Institute’s latest Real Estate Economic Forecast shows that, while the COVID-19 crisis has sent shockwaves throughout the world, U.S. real estate economists are predicting some light at the end of the tunnel, with a short-lived recession and above average GDP growth in 2021 and 2022.
The report’s conclusions are based on a May 2020 survey of 39 economists and analysts at 35 leading real estate organizations. The sentiment of the group is that the impact on the real estate market conditions and values will be much less severe than the 2008 financial crisis (with the notable exceptions of retail and hotels), but the unknowns of the global pandemic temper their expectations.
“This survey shows that leading U.S. real estate economists expect that while the top-line economic impact of COVID-19 will be much worse than the global financial crisis, U.S. real estate market fundamentals and values will fare much better compared to that era,” noted ULI leading member William Maher, retired former director of Americas strategy and research at LaSalle Investment Management. “Among real estate indicators, only retail and hotel are expected to suffer a worse outcome, while most property type returns and market fundamentals will perform much better than they did during the Great Financial Crisis.”
Maher discussed the survey results today during a ULI member-only webinar that also featured observations from Stuart Hoffman, senior vice president, and senior economic advisor, PNC Financial Services Group; Suzanne Mulvee, senior vice president, research and strategy, GID Real Estate Investments; and Tim Wang, managing director and head of investment research, Clarion Partners. Mark Wilsmann, managing director and head of equity investments, MetLife Investment Management – Real Estate, moderated the webinar panel.
Predictions from the semi-annual survey, which covers the forecast period of 2020 through 2022, include the following:
“While U.S. real estate participants should feel some level of relief from the relatively positive view of future prospects expressed herein, the severity of the current economic downturn and the many unknowns of a global pandemic should temper our views and expectations,” Maher concluded.
ULI’s Spring 2020 Real Estate Economic Forecast is the latest in a series of forecasts based on surveys of economists and industry analysts that are conducted on a semi-annual basis by the Institute’s Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. Results from the next survey are planned for release in October 2020.
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